The Big Ten has another conference matchup after Nebraska and Northwestern opened the season in Ireland. The Purdue Boilermakers host the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ross-Ade Stadium. The first Thursday card of the season is headlined by a couple of good Power Five matchups. West Virginia and Pittsburgh kick off at 7:00 p.m. EST, while Penn State and Purdue get started an hour later in Indiana.
PURDUE FINISHED STRONG – The Boilermakers won three straight games to finish the season at 9-4. They went to the Music City Bowl and won a wild game vs the Tennessee Volunteers. There were multiple opt-outs in that one on the defensive side of the ball, which resulted in a crazy 48-45 final in overtime.
That was not a bad way to go into the season. Purdue hopes to carry the momentum over to this season and compete in the Big Ten West. It’s going to be a wide-open competition in the division. The Boilermakers have to believe in themselves. The Boilermakers have a proven arm and veteran leadership at their disposal. The quarterback position is not going to be a problem for Purdue if O’Connell stays healthy. Is he a Heisman contender? No, but Purdue is in a better spot than many teams at quarterback.
Penn State didn’t put their best effort on the field last season. It was a disappointing campaign for the Nittany Lions, as they finished 7-6 and 4-5 in the conference. They finished fourth and well behind Ohio State and Michigan.
The Nittany Lions dropped their regular season finale at Michigan State, 30-27, and then didn’t look interested in the Outback Bowl in a 24-10 loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Penn State opened the season with five straight wins, including over No. 12 Wisconsin on the road, and No. 22 Auburn at home. Losing to No. 3 Iowa on the road to end the winning streak, 23-20, completely messed with their mindset. Quarterback Sean Clifford getting banged up and losing a star defensive linemen didn’t help, either.
Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction
Purdue has their quarterback returning this season, but so does Penn State and he’s one of the most experienced in the nation. Sean Clifford will be in control as the starter in his fourth season. He made his debut as a backup in 2018 and took over as QB1 the following year. Clifford was consistent with 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 61% completions last season. He has deceptive speed and can take off with his legs as well. Clifford has 987 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground in his career.
LOOK FOR A QUICK START – Expect Clifford to hit the ground running fast in Week 1. He has a pedestrian secondary on the other side to pick on Thursday night. The offensive line just has to afford him enough time to get the ball out to Parker Washington in the slot.
As long as Clifford takes care of the ball, the Nittany Lions will be in a good position because of a dominant defense. Penn State leaned on their physical defense to a 5-0 start last year. Penn State still had a good defense, but Mustipher’s run-stopping abilities were greatly missed. He is back and is likely to cause problems for Purdue.
On the back end, Penn State should hold well in the secondary with Ji’Ayir Brown returning at safety. He had six interceptions to tie for the FBS lead. Joey Porter Jr. is going to be a force at cornerback as well.
They will be tasked with slowing down Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell is coming off a strong season in his first season as the clear starter on the depth chart. He passed for 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 71.6% completions.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends:
Penn State
- 9-0 overall in their previous nine games versus Purdue
- 6-1 overall in their previous seven games at Purdue
- 10-4-1 ATS in their previous 15 games versus Purdue
- 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 games in September
- UNDER is 12-3 in their previous 15 games on the road
Purdue
- 3-6 overall in their previous nine games at home
- The home team is 1-6-1 ATS in their previous eight games versus Penn State
- 1-3-0 ATS in their previous four games at home versus Penn State
- OVER is 4-0 in their previous four games at home
- OVER is 4-1 in their previous four games
O’Connell is going to be asked to come up with a clutch drive or two in this game. Expect Penn State to force Purdue into being pass-happy at home. O’Connell is a fine quarterback, but he’s not going to have success in a game that depends on his arm versus a dangerous Nittany Lion secondary. If there’s a chance to set up the pass with the run, O’Connell will find room.
However, it’s unlikely that Mustipher is going to allow the Purdue backfield to gash them enough. After exiting vs Iowa last year, Mustipher is hungry to come back and make an impact immediately.
Do-it-all wide receiver David Bell was selected in the third round of the NFL draft. He racked up 1,286 yards last year and was O’Connell’s favorite weapon in the offense. Bell is gone while his second target, Milton Wright, is academically ineligible. Wright accounted for 732 yards and 7 touchdowns and was expected to be the next No. 1 at Purdue.
O’Connell will target his trusty tight ends, but the receivers are largely made up of transfers. This isn’t the best formula for success against a talented Penn State defense. Expect Penn State to make a critical stop late to leave Purdue with a 27-20 win.
